Affected by the epidemic, the development of overseas aluminum industry slowed down
At present, the domestic outbreak of new pneumonia has gradually stabilized, but overseas outbreaks have entered an outbreak period. Judging from the development of the epidemic, the number of confirmed cases in Asia, Europe, and North America has increased rapidly, and the short-term impact on the economies of various countries is increasingly apparent. As the epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, all links in China's aluminum industry chain are recovering steadily and orderly. However, the overseas situation is not optimistic. From the perspective of upstream production, although there has not been a reduction in production in the overseas market due to the epidemic, it may cause some companies that are already uncompetitive to withdraw from accelerating. The possibility of postponing or slowing down.
At present, overseas bauxite projects are mainly distributed in Guinea, Australia, Indonesia, Brazil, India, Malaysia and other countries. From the current development of the epidemic situation, as of now, there are no confirmed cases in Guinea, except for Malaysia and Australia. In most other countries, the number of diagnoses is basically in the single digits. Although the current epidemic situation has not caused changes at the production end, if the epidemic situation cannot be controlled in a timely and effective manner, the port and shipping may be affected later.
The overseas alumina production capacity is mainly concentrated in Australia, Brazil, India and other countries. At present, the overall operation is stable and has not been affected by the epidemic. New projects this year will be concentrated in Indonesia, India and the UAE. In the future, the market will be affected by the development of the epidemic situation in the main producing areas and changes in the capacity of downstream electrolytic aluminum. In terms of prices, overseas alumina prices have recently risen significantly due to the Chinese market.
For electrolytic aluminum, there is currently no news of production cuts due to the epidemic at overseas production ends. However, for some companies that are already due to high costs and lack of competitiveness, the epidemic may accelerate the occurrence of production cuts, and may also Affect the progress of new commissioning and resumption of production. This year, the new overseas production capacity is concentrated in Bahrain, India, Iran and Malaysia. It is worth noting that the current epidemic in Iran is serious. The current annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the country is 540,000 tons, but due to long-term sanctions, the aluminum industry has developed slowly. In 2019, the output of primary aluminum was only more than 200,000 tons.
In view of the continuous spread of the current overseas epidemic, the impact on aluminum consumption will gradually appear. It is expected that China's aluminum exports will decline, and the demand in the major export regions of Asia and North America will shrink, and the impact of the epidemic will appear in the second quarter.
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