Downstream consumption is not optimistic, the aluminum industry is still facing pressure
In 2019, China's aluminum industry will continue to adhere to the supply-side structural reform, strictly control the new capacity of electrolytic aluminum, strictly implement the capacity replacement policy, the industry's production operation is in good shape, the efficiency of the smelting industry has greatly improved, but prices continue to fall and the pressure on international trade situation Increase.
The output of smelting products declined slightly, and the aluminum price continued to fall. In 2019, the output of alumina and electrolytic aluminum were 72.47 million tons and 35.04 million tons respectively, down 1% and 0.9% year-on-year respectively, and the output of aluminum materials was 52.52 million tons, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. Aluminum prices continued the weak and volatile trend. The average spot price for the whole year was 13,960 yuan per month, down 2.1% year-on-year.
The profits of the smelting industry have improved significantly, driving the aluminum industry to stabilize its profits. In 2019, the regulated aluminum enterprises achieved a profit of 40.1 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. Among them, the profit of aluminum mining, processing and processing realized 180 million yuan and 19.5 billion yuan, down 75% and 2.1% year-on-year. The annual release of compliant electrolytic aluminum production capacity was less than expected, and occasional events such as natural disasters and safety accidents caused production reductions. The contradiction between supply and demand eased. The main production costs of electricity, alumina, and carbon anodes fell. % Has become the main factor driving the benefit of the aluminum industry.
The import volume of bauxite has increased significantly, and the export volume and price of aluminum materials have fallen. In 2019, the total import and export trade of aluminum products was US $ 26.3 billion, down 5% year-on-year, of which imports were US $ 10.7 billion, up 2.5% year-on-year, and export trade was US $ 15.6 billion, down 10.4% year-on-year. The supply of overseas bauxite continued to increase. The annual import of bauxite exceeded 100 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%. The annual export of aluminum materials was 5.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, and the total export fell by 7.2%. The unit price of aluminum exports fell by 5.7% year-on-year, showing a trend of both volume and price.
The transformation and upgrading accelerated, and the risk of excess alumina increased. The electrolytic aluminum industry strictly implements the capacity replacement policy and accelerates its transfer to Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other regions. A major breakthrough has been made in the composite dust removal technology for high-temperature electric bag production in alumina production, achieving particulate matter emissions of less than 5 mg per month m3, and the emission concentration decreased by 95% year-on-year. Affected by the loose supply of overseas bauxite, alumina production capacity accelerated, and the end of 2019 built capacity exceeded 87 million tons, further aggravating the risk of overcapacity.
In 2020, the risk of overcapacity in the aluminum industry still exists, downstream consumption is not optimistic, the situation of international trade is complex and changeable, and the industry is still facing pressure for stable operation. The industry will continue to deepen supply-side structural reforms and carry out aluminum in accordance with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference Industry standard management, strengthen industry self-discipline, strictly control the new capacity of electrolytic aluminum, strictly implement the replacement of electrolytic aluminum capacity, inhibit the disorderly expansion of alumina capacity, increase the intensity of intelligent and green transformation, and accelerate the energy of aviation aluminum and automotive aluminum High-end product development and application, continue to expand aluminum applications, and promote high-quality development of the industry.